Growth in private battery storage systems up to 20 kWh is being driven by emerging markets like Poland and Hungary, though Germany is expected to see a 5% decline in new installations compared to the previous year, according to Bonn-based analysts.
EUPD Research remains optimistic about the European market for battery energy storage systems (BESS) with up to 20 kWh capacity for private households. In their "European Electric Energy Storage Report," the Bonn-based analysts project strong demand, forecasting around 5 GWh of installations in the first half of the year and another 6 GWh in the second half. However, growth in Europe’s largest markets could decelerate slightly, with Germany potentially seeing a decline in new installations.
In Germany, approximately 270,000 BESS units were installed in the first half of 2024, a figure similar to the same period last year. However, EUPD Research anticipates a 5% decrease in new installations by the end of the year compared to 2023. This anticipated decline is attributed to reduced uncertainty in the electricity supply following the war in Ukraine, which had significantly impacted Germany and Italy, the two largest markets for home storage systems in Europe.
Across other European markets, the outlook varies. Emerging markets like Poland and Hungary are expected to experience substantial growth, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by the proliferation of private household PV systems and the need for increased grid flexibility. Conversely, markets such as Sweden and the Czech Republic, which saw high growth last year, are expected to slow down.
Despite these mixed trends, rising electricity prices, favorable subsidy programs, and growing environmental awareness are expected to continue driving the installation rates of photovoltaic and storage systems. A notable trend is the rising popularity of balcony storage systems, which aligns with the increasing number of balcony solar installations. While small systems will remain the primary driver of the storage market in 2024, the installation of larger storage systems is also set to rise across Europe.
The European BESS market is dominated by several key players, as highlighted in EUPD Research’s "PV InstallerMonitor 2023/2024 | EES InstallerMonitor 2023/2024." According to the report, China's BYD secured a 30% market share in the first half of 2024. In 2023, more than half of all installed systems were supplied by three brands, with BYD achieving a 29% share.
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