The South African market for residential, commercial, and industrial solar PV and battery installations is shifting from a focus on supply security to cost savings, according to GoSolr CEO Andrew Middleton. As load shedding decreases, the demand for installations is expected to slow in 2024 compared to the 2.6 GW installed during last year’s peak, but about 1 GW of small-scale PV installations is still anticipated.
Speaking during an EE Business Intelligence webinar, Middleton noted that 350.5 MW of rooftop solar was added in the second quarter of 2024, following a reduction in load shedding since April. Despite lower installation numbers compared to 2023, the market is showing resilience, with many consumers now driven by the prospect of financial savings rather than backup power.
Eskom and municipal tariffs are expected to rise significantly, with potential increases of up to 40%. As a result, GoSolr's subscription prices are approaching parity with Eskom’s, and savings could be further amplified by the introduction of time-of-use tariffs. Most South African households have coupled their solar PV systems with batteries due to load shedding, offering future benefits like peak shaving.
Middleton expressed concerns over Eskom's proposed tariff restructuring, which could make fixed charges 70% of the tariff. He warned that this could push wealthier customers to disconnect from the grid, calling for a more balanced approach.
For larger-scale projects, financial savings are also a key factor, but Tim Hill of Energy Group cautioned that future changes in electricity billing and tariffs could make simple savings calculations riskier. He urged businesses to consider a wider range of pricing scenarios when evaluating solar projects.
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