Extreme Warming Could Hit Thermal and Nuclear Power Harder Than Renewables in Southeast Asia

Extreme warming and increasingly frequent natural disasters could pose greater risks to fossil fuel and nuclear power generation than to wind and solar energy in Southeast Asia, according to a new analysis by energy think tank Ember.

The report finds that even under extreme warming scenarios, the region’s wind and solar generation is expected to vary by less than 1% in 2030. By comparison, thermal and nuclear power generation could experience variations of up to 4% under milder warming conditions.

The findings highlight growing concerns over the resilience of Southeast Asia’s power systems as the region faces rising temperatures, El Niño conditions and increasingly severe climate-related disasters.

Fossil Fuel Infrastructure Faces Greater Climate Risks

Natural disasters pose a significant threat to Southeast Asia’s electricity infrastructure.

Coal and gas plants are particularly vulnerable to earthquakes, typhoons, floods and volcanic eruptions. Damage to generation facilities can be compounded by disruptions to fuel supply chains, potentially prolonging power outages and affecting emergency recovery.

Around 64% of ASEAN’s installed power capacity still comes from fossil fuels, leaving the region highly exposed to disruptions in one of the world’s most disaster-prone regions.

By contrast, renewable energy systems can often be restored more quickly following extreme weather events.

Solar power can continue operating during floods, droughts and earthquakes when properly installed. While solar infrastructure remains vulnerable to tropical cyclones and damage to distribution networks, solar facilities can potentially be rebuilt within three years, compared with up to 10 years for coal plants.

Storage and Grid Interconnection Become Critical

Ember argues that renewable energy, battery storage and stronger grid interconnections should play a central role in improving Southeast Asia’s power resilience.

In the Philippines, for example, the government is expanding grid interconnections to reduce the impact of power disruptions in isolated and disaster-prone areas.

The typhoon-prone province of Catanduanes, which frequently experiences blackouts due to its isolated diesel-dependent grid, is expected to gain an interconnection with Luzon. The connection could supply up to 22% of the island’s electricity demand by 2030, helping improve emergency recovery and system reliability.

In Indonesia, Ember identified 67 coal plants with a combined capacity of 8.9 GW operating in earthquake-prone areas.

The report estimates that deploying 600 MW of solar paired with 720 MWh of battery storage could offset around 250 MW of existing and planned coal capacity, while potentially enabling faster deployment and recovery following disasters.

Vietnam Highlights the Need for Grid Flexibility

Vietnam also faces challenges as renewable energy deployment accelerates.

Flood-prone provinces such as Gia Lai and Ninh Thuan have expanded renewable generation to strengthen local electricity supply. However, limited grid flexibility and insufficient storage have created challenges for integrating additional solar power.

According to Ember, solar curtailment in Vietnam in 2020 resulted in approximately US$26 million in losses.

The report recommends upgrading transmission infrastructure while expanding battery storage, smart grids and demand-side flexibility mechanisms.

These measures could allow Vietnam to capture more of its solar potential while improving the power system’s ability to recover from extreme weather events.

Renewables, Storage and Resilient Grids

The report argues that Southeast Asia’s energy transition should not focus solely on decarbonisation.

Renewable energy, battery storage and grid interconnection can also serve as critical safeguards for energy security and disaster resilience.

Ember recommends integrating power-system flexibility and energy planning directly into ASEAN’s regional disaster management frameworks, including the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response.

As climate risks intensify, Southeast Asian countries may therefore need to rethink how they plan their future power systems.

The shift toward solar, wind, battery storage and interconnected grids could provide not only a pathway toward lower carbon emissions, but also a more resilient electricity system capable of withstanding increasingly frequent climate-related disruptions.