According to Aurora Energy Research, Italy is projected to install over 5 GW of solar capacity in 2024, despite facing regulatory complexities. The consultancy anticipates that 35% of this new capacity will come from utility-scale projects, while the remainder will be split between residential and commercial & industrial (C&I) sectors.
Recent changes in the global rankings for photovoltaic (PV) capacity have been minimal, with Italy making its debut in the top ten, replacing Poland. China remains the dominant player, with more than double the installed capacity of the other top nine countries combined, accounting for 71% of the global total, followed by the United States with 9%.
While Italy's performance is notable, other European countries have surpassed it in recent years. Germany set a new record with 15 GW installed in 2023, breaking Italy’s previous record of 9.3 GW from 2011. Spain also exceeded Italy, installing 8.9 GW in 2023.
Looking ahead, Italy’s position among the top ten photovoltaic markets is not guaranteed. Analysts at Aurora Energy Research predict that Italy will bring online over 5 GW in 2024, building on the 5.2 GW installed in 2023. The past two years have seen significant acceleration, with a 90% increase from 2022 and 3.3 GW installed in the first half of 2024. The anticipated new capacity is expected to be evenly split between utility-scale projects and smaller installations.
Maddalena Cerreto, Senior Associate at Aurora Energy Research, highlights the importance of utility-scale growth for Italy’s future in the solar market. Despite recent progress, further expansion in this sector is crucial for Italy to achieve its 2030 decarbonization targets. However, the development of utility-scale projects faces challenges due to recent policy changes, such as the Agriculture Decree, which prohibits new ground-mounted solar PV projects on agricultural land, and the Suitable Areas Decree, which delegates the identification of suitable areas for renewable energy to regional authorities.
Cerreto emphasizes that managing new risks, such as changes in capture prices and grid integration, will be key to sustaining growth. While Italy is only 1.7 GW short of the 5 GW target for 2024, a slight slowdown in new installations was noted in recent months, with July’s addition of 512 MW falling short of previous months' figures.
Looking forward to 2024-2028, SolarPower Europe forecasts that Germany will continue to lead, with market growth of 7% to 16.1 GW, following a remarkable 104% increase to 15 GW in 2023. Spain and Italy are expected to hold the second and third positions, respectively, with Spain’s market projected to decrease by 12% in 2024 and Italy’s to increase by 13%.
However, SolarPower Europe's report does not fully account for recent regulatory changes. Despite this, the report estimates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% for the global photovoltaic market from 2024-2028, significantly lower than growth rates in Turkey (28%) and South Africa (25%).
Italy’s continued presence among the top ten photovoltaic markets will depend on how well stakeholders manage emerging risks and adapt to evolving regulations. While the outlook for 2024 appears promising, future years may present challenges unless there is a shift in regulatory policies and political priorities. Energy prices, particularly Italy’s status as one of Europe’s most expensive electricity markets, may also influence the sector's trajectory.
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